It’s early days but a tropical depression has the potential to become a tropical cyclone next week near the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Even if it doesn’t technically become a cyclone with a name, it may still produce a period of very heavy rain and strong winds for those two nations in particular.

Rainfall totals in northern Vanuatu over the coming week may be over 200mm as this low drops southwards and deepens early next week (Around Monday/Tuesday next week).

The South Pacific Cyclone season officially starts on November 1, although as Phil says in the video – Mother Nature doesn’t know that, so having one form a little earlier is rare but not out of the realms of possibility.

Elsewhere and Norfolk Island has low pressure zone and showers followed by a brief southerly. (The same low bringing some rain and showers to the upper North Island this weekend).

And downpours continue around Samoa and Tahiti in particular, while Fiji and Tonga lean drier for now.

FUTURE TRACK:
Because there is uncertainty as to if this cyclone is a sure thing, talking about the future track gets messy. We refer to long range modelling which suggests it may track as far south as New Caledonia area, then maybe shift east towards Fiji and fall apart.

As of today, there is no threat at all to New Zealand and minimal threat to Fiji.

Our next update is Tuesday next week (Oct 24) and by then we’ll know if there’s a storm – or just a depression with rain, lightning and some wind.

*Small Error: Phil made a slight error – Fiji is 22 hours ahead of Hawaii…which means it’s a couple hours *behind* Hawaii on the clock – but a full day ahead…(Make sense!?). Eg. 12 Noon Thursday in Fiji is 2pm Wednesday in Hawaii.

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