I wish I had better news for those of you hoping to have a Valentine’s Day picnic under the sun or stars.

You may want to think about making reservations at a nice restaurant instead.

A Tasmanian low pressure centre will be heading our direction on Tuesday.  As it gets closer to us, our chances for seeing showers goes up.

That doesn’t mean all of New Zealand will be getting wet all day long.  The North Island looks to have the best chance for showers in the morning and afternoon.  Northland through Taranaki will have the best chance for seeing showers early in the day.  The rest of the island may have to wait until mid to late afternoon.

The South Island should be dry in the morning and early afternoon, but could then see showers for the late afternoon and evening.  The best chance for seeing showers there will be, just about everywhere.  The models are trying to keep Southland and Otago dry for Tuesday, but I wouldn’t bet on it.  With the onshore flow that should develop on Tuesday, it’s very difficult to completely rule out showers.  Although central Otago should stay dry, regardless.

Daytime highs across the country should range from the mid teens to lower 20’s.

– By weather analyst Howard Joseph