High pressure near Australia is encouraging colder winds into NZ… but by Saturday that high will be anchored near The Far North. This shift in placement of this high pressure zone means the airflow into NZ also shifts later this week. Before that happens we have more southerly quarter winds, which will turn more SW by Thursday and then more NW into Friday and Saturday.

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By Friday and Saturday the high to the north and lows south of NZ means the South Island and lower North Island will be in for a windier, milder, nor’wester out of Aussie. Severe weather warnings are possible. We’ll have more details about this in our weather video out around noon Tuesday.

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For Tuesday most places are in the classic Sou-West setup with showers off the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean. Colder nights inland, especially for the South Island.

For regions facing to the north and east (with ranges/hills to the west and south) you will likely have plenty more sunshine and dry weather. Check our rainfall maps here to better understand who gets rain and who misses out.

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For Wednesday a surge of wind (with gales) and rain (some heavy falls or squally showers) moves into the western upper North Island (Taranaki to Waikato to Auckland to Northland). This may be the coldest day of the week for main centres like Hamilton, Thames, Auckland, Tauranga, Dargaville, Whangarei etc).

Elsewhere it’s colder, although the lower South Island may notice temperatures lifting a degree or two as milder air from Aussie moves in on Wednesday night or perhaps Thursday.

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• WeatherWatch.co.nz