My favourite topic, thunderstorms of course. Are any due near you in the near future?

Well early this morning Banks Peninsula had a close call, a band of thunderstorms moved north just off the coast of Canterbury. Had it been day time and this same area of instability was to move over then thunderstorms would have been likely across Canterbury but it escaped this time.

Tomorrow a front moving onto the West Coast of the South Island will likely see thunderstorms there with heavy downpours likely, first starting off in Fiordland and South Westland during the afternoon and evening then there could be some bright flashes about on Wednesday night in North Westland and Buller.

A few of these storms may spread east of the main divide into Central Otago and the Canterbury foothills as the front mentioned above progresses north but any lightning activity may be limited in these areas.

Overnight on Wednesday an upper cold pool of air moves over Fiordland bringing unstable air so a further period of storms is likely there too.

While still uncertain due to it being 4 or 5 days away a further window of opportunity for some thundery activity appears on the West Coast of the South Island mainly south of about Hokitika overnight on Saturday then Sunday may see storms appear about coastal Otago.

These events are very much based in the South Island. A few storm enthusiasts I know from the North Island are holding out for some thundery activity at some point soon as there hasn’t been any in a while.

Even though there is nothing at the moment late January and into February could provide some nice storms about inland Waikato and the Central North Island as has traditionally been the case in some years.

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson – WeatherWatch.co.nz