Here’s what is making the weather headlines this weekend…

WEEKEND STARTS SETTLED THEN…..

Today is reasonably settled thanks to high pressure, we do have some cloud though. The eastern North Island has a little cloud, perhaps a shower or two along the coastal fringe. Western parts of the North Island have a mix of sun and cloud, perhaps a shower or two from afternoon. The West Coast of the South Island has cloud, mainly dry then showers or rain move into South Westland from evening.

The east coast of the South Island has a nice day, overnight spits or showers for Southland.

Now Sunday we start to turn, this is the case for the South Island especially as an area of low pressure plus cold upper air moves in. Expect rain or showers along the West Coast and for Southland and Otago, there is some instability also so a rumble of thunder with hail is possible. Canterbury has a southerly change develop in the afternoon bringing showers, thunderstorms and hail have a reasonable chance here.

Nelson has a few spits or showers pass over from the west during the afternoon as a front moves northwards, Marlborough overnight has showers with winds changing southwest. The western North Island has a few showers, beefing up in the southwest (Taranaki through to Wellington) from evening as a front moves in. Hawkes Bay, Gisborne and Bay Of Plenty have a nice day.

Moving into Monday a front pushes northwards for the North Island especially in the west bringing showers, some of these may be heavy. Showers for the lower North Island (Taranaki through to Wellington / Wairarapa) may be heavy in spots with thunder and hail also, mid to late afternoon Hawkes Bay and Gisborne has a few showers with southwesterlies, perhaps a risk of thunder and hail.

There will be some snow with the above system over the course of Sunday and Monday but it will mostly stay above 800m.

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WEATHER GETS INTERESTING END OF NEXT WEEK

A low deepens in the Tasman Sea on Thursday next week with a northeasterly airflow over the country, a front spiraling out from the low moves onto the upper North Island bringing rain and there may be a few heavy falls, more so in the east.

Friday is wet along the western side of both Islands, a few heavy falls are possible especially parts of the North Island later in the day and overnight into Saturday as the front moves eastwards.

The airflow on Saturday changes to the southwest so temperatures will then drop.

If we take a look at the “Precipitation percentage of normal map” below you can see where it is potentially going to be wetter than normal for the next seven day period, this map runs through to next Saturday 20th May. Blue colouring means that part of the country is expecting more rainfall than would normally be expected at this time of year, red means less rainfall is expected and white is an average amount of rainfall. The more intense either red or blue then either scenario is more true.

Most of the blue colouring below will be from the rain due towards the end of next week. Yes we have heavy showers moving through for some Sunday and Monday but these will be more isolated in nature.

🌀There remains a lot of uncertainty about whether or not #NewZealand has a "storm" coming late this coming week – or just a large low. Either way, warmer airflows and more rain return to #NewZealand.#Autumn!

Compare #PredictWind Forecast Maps here: https://t.co/lKYq6tDJXX pic.twitter.com/gxPqOmV93q

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) May 13, 2023

WEATHER ON SUNDAY

An area of low pressure moves onto the lower South Island on Sunday with a cold front moving northwards up the West Coast, reaching the southwestern corner of the North Island this evening. Cold upper air over the South Island may induce a few thunderstorms with hail.

North Island

The western North Island has areas of cloud a few showers, beefing up in the southwest (Taranaki through to Wellington) from evening as a front moves in. Winds from the westerly quarter. The east coast and Bay Of Plenty have a nice day, spits pass over into Wairarapa from afternoon.

South Island

Expect rain or showers along the West Coast and for Southland and Otago, a rumble of thunder with hail is possible. Canterbury has a southerly change develop in the afternoon bringing showers after a dry morning, thunderstorms and hail possible. Nelson has a few spits or showers pass over from the west during the afternoon as a front moves northwards, Marlborough is dry then overnight has showers as winds change southwest.

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