A low in the Tasman Sea is drifting closer to New Zealand as we head into the weekend and much of the country will be affected by it at some point, even if just humid cloudy weather.

The low is not a storm but it is tapping into the sub-tropics and that can produce localised heavy falls. It can also produce a lot of cloud, humidity and drizzle patches – which is hardly ‘severe’ weather.

Many are asking us if it will rain at certain places at particular times in the coming days (eg, Adele’s concerts!). This low is very slow moving and will stall around northern New Zealand. This sometimes weakens the low and can make forecasting the timing of rain very tricky. The general forecast is for a mix of drizzle, dry spells and slow moving downpours off and on for northern New Zealand from this weekend through until mid to late week next week.

There may be some sizeable dry spells – but also some localised heavy downpours.

Some areas of rain may be heavy enough to cause flooding but latest modelling still shows the majority of this to be out at sea near New Zealand and possibly not over us completely. Either way this low is one to monitor with regions most impacted by the “Tasman Tempest” now most exposed to rain from this low.

There will be plenty of dry or drizzly areas though. We’ll keep our daily updates going through the weekend as we work out where the heaviest rain will be.

Many south of about Lake Taupo won’t be impacted by anything too heavy but around Nelson and Buller there may also be some heavy set-in downpours from this low.

Southland, Otago and Canterbury look to be least affected by it.

We’ll keep you posted over the coming days – and remember to get a better understanding of the slow moving nature and fractured rain bands with this system look at the rain maps covering the final days of March.

– Next Wednesday’s rain map shows a rain band connecting northern New Zealand with the sub-tropics. While the rain is very narrow there is a chance of slow moving heavy falls. This system has already caused flooding across eastern Australia. The bulk of NZ is dry, however.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz