Do we have a break in the chain coming up? A weekend full of sun and dry skies? It’s possible! In fact, at this stage, it’s looking very promising for much of the country. So firstly, the usual weather disclaimer: long range forecasts in winter are notoriously changeable… but we can usually get a good feel for things 6 or 7 days out…ie: whether or not the “chances” of rain or wind are high or low. As of Monday morning the chances are low for us to have another wet and windy weekend. In fact, all the long range models that we use are showing a nice big anticyclone over the country – bringing a return to colder nights but sunny skies and dry days.

Because the wind will be coming from the south west for Aucklanders there is the risk of a few showers this week being blown in from the Tasman. But Thursday through Sunday look pretty good at the moment.

The reason we’ve been getting so much rain over the country is because we haven’t had the big blocking highs over us. In fact, the Tasman Sea has had a serious lack of high pressure over it, allowing low after low to form. In Summer, when droughts affected so much of the country, it was large high pressure systems forming over the Tasman Sea and stretching a ridge over New Zealand that stopped the rain bands from developing or moving in.

So yes – a forecast for mainly sunny, dry, calm days is certainly looking more likely this weekend across much of New Zealand than it has for a couple of months.
 

Blog by Philip Duncan – Head Weather Analyst