We’ve been talking about it for a week and now we can get more specific about the incoming sub-tropical low.

WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters maintain the low will mostly affecting northern and eastern parts of New Zealand, however gale force easterlies will affect some western facing areas of the North Island.

“The low is currently just 500kms south of New Caledonia, or 1000kms north east of New Zealand, and will slowly churn towards the upper North Island over the next 24 hours” says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.

Already high cloud has thickened up faster than predicted with overcast skies covering Northland and now Auckland and Waikato Coromandel and Bay of Plenty.

Easterlies are picking up now too, becoming brisk in exposed areas north of Auckland.  During late Thursday and into Friday gales, possibly damaging, may affect the eastern Waikato and Hauraki Plains.

Rain is likely to be patchy but due to the sub-tropical nature of this low, pulling down moisture rich air from the sub-tropics, some bands of rain may become heavy over Thursday, Friday and Saturday in the North Island.

Dangerous swells of 4 to 6 metres will affect eastern beaches from Northland to East Cape starting Thursday afternoon and not easing until Saturday.

See our interactive Swell, Rain & wind maps (powered by WeatherMap) here: www.weatherwatch.co.nz/maps

Heavy Rain

Areas most exposed to heavy rain are northern and eastern Northland, northern Auckland, all of Coromandel Peninsula and much of western and central Bay of Plenty.  Risk for heavy rain starts Thursday AM in the Far North and eases on Friday or Saturday. 

Gales

Gales will move into the Far North overnight and into Thursday, peaking during daylight hours over Northland, then peaking in Auckland Thursday PM easing Friday AM.  Easterly gales will push into western Coromandel and eastern Waikato across Friday.

 – WeatherWatch.co.nz