A sub-tropical low that WeatherWatch.co.nz first talked about over a week ago looks set to affect our weather at the start of next week with heavy rain and strong winds.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the low has the potential to be a real game changer with regards to the widespread droughts but he says there are never any guarantees when it comes to the weather.  “Yes, we think a low is likely. Yes, we think it will bring rain to New Zealand. No, we can’t say for certain exactly where the heaviest rain will fall at this early stage”.

Map – Next Monday sees a sub-tropical low with heavy rain and wind just west of NZ / weathermap.co.nz

Mr Duncan expects rain warnings for the low, with the West Coast and Nelson looking most vulnerable at this stage.  “We think there will be plenty of rain around New Zealand between this Sunday and next Wednesday – it’s just a matter of working out exactly where the main rain bands will go and we still need a few more days for that one”.

Updates on Monday suggested widespread rain was expected across northern and western regions of both islands – but that it could be a little more hit and miss for others, although every region was expected to receive rain or showers from the event.

“The geography of New Zealand often can block heavy rain from spreading into all regions – this is why we’re being a little cautious and asking people not to get their hopes up just yet.  As the week wears on we will be able to predict the incoming rain with more detail”.

As with any low from the north, New Zealand being so thin means we run the risk of the low dropping down either coastline – and not directly crossing the country.

The low will develop in the coming days and should be deepening as it heads towards New Zealand this weekend.

“The low is coming from the Coral Sea off the Queensland coast and will get a southerly injection of energy when it reaches us early next week. While we aren’t sure of exactly where the heaviest rain will fall this low looks set to be the most intense we’ve seen so far this year”.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz