A sub-tropical low packing both rain and wind is set to develop north of New Zealand this weekend and WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters will be keeping a close eye on it.

The low, which is likely to develop on Friday and deepen fairly quickly over the weekend, is predicted to run parallel to the Northland, Coromandel and East Cape coastlines.

While it’s expected to be very close, all modelling currently shows it only brushing the upper North Island with easterlies and cloud.  There is moderate confidence it will bring rain to East Cape and low confidence of rain from Northland to Bay of Plenty, including Auckland.

Image / A deep low north of East Cape on Monday, green indicates gales, yellow = strong winds / ECMWF

But the close proximity of the low, on top of recent deluges, will be creating some anxiety for residents especially in Bay of Plenty which has had record breaking rain over the past month, flooding, three homes hit by lightning and a deadly landslide.

WeatherWatch.co.nz will monitor the low closely over the next few days and bring you the latest developments.

It is expected to be closest to East Cape and Northland later on Sunday and into Monday.  A strong westerly flow is also expected to develop on Monday, which should help push the low further east away from New Zealand.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz