A low pressure system will dominate our weather this week, mainly for the North Island, but possibly the South Island too on Christmas Day.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan, from weatherwatch.co.nz, says the low is coming from the sub-tropics and could bring good rainfalls to parched farms of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay.  “The low will move over Northland and Auckland tomorrow bringing strong east or south east winds and rain.  By late Tuesday and during Christmas Eve it will move over Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and southern parts of the North Island”.

Mr Duncan says at this stage he doesn’t think rainfall will be too high around Gisborne as the low may be too far west of the region but it’s certainly “a good sign” that a low is coming from the sub-tropics.  “Gisborne and Hawkes Bay are both drier than they were at this time last year – so any rain will be welcome”.

And this may not be the last low from the sub-tropics.  “This summer we may well see more of these lows as we’re not in a fixed weather pattern (ie La Nina or El Nino).  Certainly at the moment New Zealand has a better set up than this time last year for rain bearing fronts to move down from north of New Zealand and help out the farmers”.

It’s not bad news for campers either.  “We’re seeing about one day in 7 that’s wet … that’s pretty good news for campers”.

Meanwhile the South Island should be in for a mainly settled, dry, week.  The low may drive in some cooler, cloudier, southerlies on Christmas Day for eastern areas.  “Christchurch and Dunedin aren’t likely to have a scorcher but no significant rain is forecast on Christmas Day so it’s looking quite likely to be an outdoors day”.