Spring has certainly been a mixture of dull and cloud days mixed with windy, violent, hot and cold days too. In other words, according to the spring rule book, this spring has been pretty normal.

November was surprisingly active with snow falling in Invercargill, severe gales in Southland, Otago, Canterbury and especially Wellington, while blustery conditions affected many other regions.

Flooding hit Greymouth and the Grey river as well.

But the recent surge in spring weather means summer may kick off in a similar fashion – changeable.

WeatherWatch.co.nz’s head weather analyst Philip Duncan says conditions for the start of Summer will be like a “slowed down” version of November.

“Our long range maps indicate December will also be a mixture of cloudy and dry days, calm and sunny days, and still a few more wind and rain warnings to come. It will be like a slowed down version of November with fronts and highs gradually losing some speed”.

Mr Duncan says it’s normal to see the weather getting sluggish as we head into December. “Just like human beings the summer months makes the weather patterns sluggish too. The highs get lazy, the fronts lack oomph and generally everything slows down”.

December will kick off with mostly dry weather tomorrow thanks to a large high to our east. That high will feed in easterlies to northern New Zealand following weeks of westerlies.

The first weekend of Summer will have a front pass over, mostly on Sunday and into Monday. It’s not expected to bring widespread heavy rain but should bring a fair amount of low cloud and drizzly patchy rain across both islands, mostly in the north and west.

While the timing may not be perfect – arriving in the weekend – many Northlanders, Aucklanders and those in Waikato and Bay of Plenty will welcome any rain for dry farms, gardens and emptying water tanks.

This area of rain may turn into a small low just east of the North Island next week but as we head into week two of December expect another high to cross New Zealand.

“It’s been so dry in the top half of the North Island lately and very windy and changeable from Auckland southwards and that is directly due to constant highs north of New Zealand. These highs are stopping rainmakers coming down from the north and are leaving the country vulnerable to strong winds”.

“The change we’re seeing in December is a shift in those highs further south. Instead of tracking north of New Zealand they may now cross central New Zealand – which will bring longer periods of settled spells and more easterlies to the north”.

But Mr Duncan says between each high is still a windier, wetter, period of weather. “We may see conditions still fairly unsettled up until Christmas but plenty of dry, sunny, days too. Summer will gradually start this year”.

And before you worry – a late start to summer doesn’t mean a short season. March is often hot and sunny too although WeatherWatch.co.nz says no credible forecaster can predict what March will be like just yet.

The weak La Nina conditions may start to dominate a little more in January but for December the overall trend will still see weather systems coming at us from the west and south west being manipulated by deep lows still churning in the Southern Ocean.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz Exclusive