The first of the weather warnings has been issued by MetService.

Government forecasters have already issued a Severe Weather Warning effective midday Thursday through Friday evening for Nelson/Tasman, western Marlborough, and about Mount Taranaki.

MetService says that this rain, “especially in the Tasman District, has the potential to cause rivers to rise rapidly and lead to flooding or slips.”  The government agency goes on to say that driving could “become difficult or hazardous.”

Elsewhere, rain is expected to move into Northland during the overnight and spread into Auckland before sunrise.  Heavy rainfall could move into these areas as well as the Coromandel Peninsula by the afternoon.

At this time it looks like the heaviest rain will fall in the areas already under the newly issued Severe Weather Warning.

And whilst it doesn’t look like any part of New Zealand will be spared the rain over the next few days, some areas will certainly spend less getting wet.  Southland and western Otago will likely see very little rain out of this.  The best chance for these areas is Thursday evening and the pre-dawn hours of Friday.  Otherwise, besides some breezy conditions, these areas should be pretty settled.  It also looks the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay areas may be spared the rain until at least Friday morning.

Keep in mind this is not just a rain event.  This is a wind event too.  However, winds are expected to remain below severe levels.

Finally, remember that this has the potential to become a serious situation with the biggest threat being in Nelson/Tasman, western Marlborough, and about Mount Taranaki.  That’s why MetService has issued the warning.  It’s still a bit too soon to nail down exactly where the greatest flooding threat is for the rest of the country.  We will have to wait a bit longer to see how things unfold.

As far as affecting your plans for this end of this week and this weekend, you will need to take extra precautions and safety measures if you decide to go ahead without door activities.  Head Weather Analyst Philip Duncan said early today, ” Unfortunately it’s our most popular camping/holiday destinations that will be affected by the heavy rain and winds.  Winds are likely to be blustery in exposed areas, especially around the upper North Island and eastern Waikato.  Winds may be strong enough to rip some tents, and boaties are also advised to check moorings with marine gale warnings a near certainty from Auckland northwards.”

 Mr Ducan continues, “As someone who has camped for over 30 years I know what to look for – and this one looks like the rain will be the main issue, the wind will be more of an annoyance – so if you prepare today with a few extra pegs, tarps and ropes, you should be able to stand up to any wind gusts.  Oh and dust off the Monopoly set for the kids, and get an extra bottle of wine and reading material for yourself.”

Stay tuned…