Weather patterns could be changing by the time the second week of March arrives however we’ve seen a set up like this before but we’re hoping this one pulls through.

We break it down region by region…

Northland, Auckland

A huge amount riding on Week 2 of March as a sub-tropical low pushes in across northern NZ. Like an egg on an A frame roof so too is this round low balanced at the top of Northland. It is likely to ‘roll down’ the east coast of the country – and computer models have “low to moderate” confidence of this bringing a period of rain or showers around March 7 or 8 and the system could linger until March 13 bringing more rain or showers. Definitely one to watch and nothing “locked in” quite yet.

Waikato / Bay of Plenty

Latest data has “low to moderate” confidence of a sub-tropical low bringing a period of rain or showers around March 7 or 8 and the system could linger until March 13 bringing more rain or showers.

East Cape, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa, Wellington:

WeatherWatch.co.nz have looked at models and we have “low to moderate” confidence a sub-tropical low delivers a band of rain or showers around March 9 to 13, especially around Gisborne and Northern Hawkes Bay. Showers less likely towards Wairarapa but still possible.

Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu

This sub-tropical low in the picture may not be good new for this part of the country.It is likely to ‘roll down’ the east coast of the country – unfortunately this doesn’t favour rain for these regions, neither does the wind direction which will be often south east. However with these areas borderline this sub-tropical low is certainly one to watch. 

Nelson/Marlborough

It appears if the sub-tropical low comes off these provinces might only catch the very tail end.
There’s a chance Marlborough might see some light to moderate falls however Nelson is looking the drier of the two regions as a southeasterly tends to keep the region more sheltered from rain as it struggles to come over the western ranges and the Whangamoas.

Canterbury + Main Rivers

A southerly change on March 9 and 10 is expected to bring in showers or even a period of rain. March 11 and 12 sees cloudy periods, sou’easters and perhaps a few lingering showers.

West Coast

March 9 and 10 rain is possible, potentially HEAVY south of the glaciers. A south east change on the 11th will clear the western skies with a new high in place by March 13.

Southland / Otago

March 9 and 10 showers are possible, potentially HEAVY over in Fiordland. But mostly dry in coastal Otago. Another high returns March 11.

WeatherWatch.co.nz believes March has the potential to carry on as February has been – mostly dry. A lot depends on this potential sub-tropical low around March 7 to 13. If it misses NZ then we could be waiting until the end of the month for rain.

*WeatherWatch.co.nz