The remnants of Evan still appear headed for a Christmas Eve rendezvous with the North Island, with the effects being felt as early as Saturday in the northern and eastern areas.

By the time things wind down on Tuesday, just about every part of the North Island will have felt at least some effect from Evan.

Here’s how things break down, based on the current model data;

First, as of this morning, Evan is no longer a tropical cyclone.  However, it is still a potent low packed with moisture and enough energy generate some strong winds.

WeatherWatch.co.nz Forecaster Howard Joseph says by Saturday evening, the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, East Cape and Gisborne should all be seeing rain.  Some of it could be heavy at times.  Winds will also be picking up in strength and could near gale force.  Mr Joseph says “Severe gale force winds do not appear to be likely, but the threat can’t be completely ruled out.”

Evan looks more of a rain event for NZ.

As the remnants of Evan gets closer, more rain is expected for the Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, East Cape and Gisborne on Sunday.  There is a good possibility for heavy rain for the East Cape and Gisborne Sunday evening.  Moderate to strong winds are expected for the eastern North Island from Gisborne, north to the upper tip of the island.  Winds could again approach gale force.

Rain is also expected to fall on Hawke’s Bay, Auckland and Waikato on Sunday.

On Monday morning, the centre of the low is expected to move west across the tip of the North Island.  Rain, some possibly heavy, and moderate to strong winds will likely affect most of the North Island.  Most of the rain will affect the northern half of the island.  The strong winds will likely affect Northland and Auckland.  There is a pretty good chance for winds to approach gale force.  Severe gales are possible but only a low risk.

On Christmas Day, the low will continue its slow westward track out over the Tasman Sea as it continues to unravel and fall apart  Expect a showery day for most of the North Island and possibly even the upper South Island with windy conditions for some too. 

Mr Joseph cautions that there is still a chance that low could end up taking a different track, in which case the wind and rain forecasts will need to be adjusted.  But he adds that WeatherWatch.co.nz will continue to keep a close eye on the remnants of Evan and will provide updates as conditions warrant.

Homepage image/ Monday morning weather map courtesy of Weathermap.co.nz

-WeatherWatch.co.nz