The outlook is still looking as previously expected for this incoming low pressure system, although there are some suggestions in weather data that rain may not be as prolonged now on the east coast of the South Island as initially thought and not as heavy. There will no doubt be some heavy rain on the east coast of the South Island more so south of about Ashburton for a time, it’s just that instead of looking like it was going to last most of next week it is now looking like the bulk of the rain may occur on Sunday through to Tuesday before moving on.

Also this rain should get into Otago early next week which will be welcomed as the heavy rain lately in South Canterbury just hasn’t managed to reach much further south. There is some disagreement amongst the models as to how heavy the rain will be at this stage or if it will be heavy at all.

Rain develops about Northland through to Waikato tomorrow afternoon and evening becoming heavy as it spreads south, the heavy rain slowly moves east overnight and during Sunday clearing in behind however showers are likely to continue in areas. The Bay of Plenty should get a good drenching out of this front due overnight Saturday and through Sunday morning / early afternoon, around 60 to 80mm can be expected.

The South Island will get cloudy and sunny areas tomorrow with north to northeasterly breezes, drizzle about Tasman and Nelson. Drizzle patches about Fiordland also from morning and perhaps Southland and Central Otago more so east of the divide into the afternoon and evening.

Homepage image / Saturday 11th August midday rain map, weathermap.co.nz

By weather analyst Aaron Wilkinson, WeatherWatch.co.nz