Heavy rain may ruin Queen’s Birthday Monday for some people in the North Island as another large low barrels out of the north Tasman Sea and into New Zealand.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says for several days now the computer models have been picking a low forming around Queens Birthday weekend but today the two main models used by WeatherWatch confirm the likely path – directly over the North Island.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the long weekend is going to start off sunny and settled but may end wet, wintry and windy for many.

“This low is going to drag heavy rain over the North Island starting Sunday in the north and moving in to the east on Monday”.

Mr Duncan says the heavy rain could cause serious surface flooding especially in Northland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Hawkes Bay, where recent drenchings have saturated the soil.  “We’re not saying floods are on the way, we’re just advising that it won’t take much heavy rain to create fairly serious surface flooding”.

According to WeatherWatch.co.nz’s exclusive Queens Birthday Travel forecast conditions will be “Poor to Moderate” for motorists.  The chance of rain or showers about the North Island’s east coast could make driving hazardous. Also, gales or strong winds around the lower North Island, says WeatherWatch.co.nz.

The forecasting site also says Cook Strait will have “poor to moderate” conditions with a gale southerly developing and rain at times on Monday.

For air travels conditions on Monday will be “moderate” with some turbulence, especially about central and eastern New Zealand.

But for those heading away tomorrow it’s a different story.  WeatherWatch.co.nz rates road, sea and ferry conditions as being “Good”.

MetService is also closely monitoring the low, predicting heavy rain on Sunday and Monday,