Rain is now forecast for some of New Zealand’s current dry spots with the heaviest falls jumping over regions recently already hit by heavy rain. WeatherWatch.co.nz says the forecast is yet more evidence that New Zealand is being impacted by a chaotic local pattern, rather than any large global patterns (such as El Nino, for example). 

Not only is rain in the forecast but sea temperatures around New Zealand (the Tasman Sea especially) are above normal for this time of the year – which should encourages more rain makers, not fewer.

Head forecaster Philip Duncan says the mid November dry spell was forecast by WeatherWatch.co.nz in late October, and now the latest suggests rain is returning. “It’s not going to be instant relief for all that have dry conditions but the rain coming in next week does look, at this stage, to favour falling in places that are the driest”. Mr Duncan says the second half of November looks more unsettled than the first half did and that will bode well for farmers and pasture growth heading into December.

According to Government Agency NIWA and their public soil maps (funded by the NZ taxpayer) the eastern North Island and upper North Island are the two driest parts of NZ. WeatherWatch.co.nz says both of these areas have some relief coming in the next week but that northern NZ may miss out on enough to truly soak the ground. “We’re just focused on finding relief where we can before summer officially kicks off on December 1st” says Mr Duncan. “The fact we have rain and showers in the forecast is a real positive, even if just mentally preparing for the dry months ahead”.

SOIL DEFICIT:

– NIWA (A Government Agency funded by the NZ taxpayers)

7 DAY RAINFALL MAP COMPARED TO NORMAL (Red = drier, Blue = wetter, White = average)

– Map courtesy of the US Government

TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL – BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT THIS SUNDAY:

TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL – BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT NEXT WEDNESDAY:

– WeatherWatch.co.nz