The same weather pattern that helped make for a cloudy and damp Christmas Eve for some parts of New Zealand looks likely to return in the final days of 2012 – making for a higher risk of wind and rain on New Years Eve – but don’t go cancelling any plans just yet.

WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says a similar set up, with highs either side of New Zealand but not directly over us, looks likely for New Years Eve.  “Just like for the start of Christmas we expect a high to the east and another one in the Tasman Sea – lowering the air pressure here at home and increasing the risks of wind and showers”.

As of today the current forecast, which we have moderate confidence in, shows wet weather clearing during New Years Eve in the North Island while rain moves up the West Coast of the South Island and gusty nor’westers for central New Zealand, including Wellington.

However despite the possible changeable weather most main centres still look fairly dry at this early stage. 

• Auckland has just a 30% chance of showers with westerlies picking up.  New Years Day could be windy but dry and cloudy.
• Wellington is expected to be dry with a near gale northerly or north westerly on NYE with New Years Day looking similar but a higher risk for showers.
• Christchurch should be dry and warm on New Years Eve but perhaps a little cooler, cloudier and windier for Jan 1.

WeatherWatch.co.nz is using the same models that accurately picked Evan’s path 2 weeks in advance.  “I tend to be a glass half full kinda guy and while the forecast may not be ideal keep in mind long range predictions are just a basic guide for the weather pattern and we are seeing another unsettled spell of weather but it may be more like a hot spring weather pattern than the tropical summer system we’ve just had”

Mr Duncan says spring patterns tend to bring sunny and dry weather to eastern and northern areas where most partygoers are expected, but cloudy and wetter weather for western areas and windier weather for central NZ.

“If you’re going away camping just keep up to date with the latest weather news and potential warnings – but this looks to be short lived with a high hopefully moving in behind it to settle things down for the start of January”.

WeatherWatch.co.nz will have a more detailed regional forecast for New Years Eve in the next day or so.

– Homepage image / Jo Ottey

– WeatherWatch.co.nz