Updated 9:04am Monday — The forecast for Queens Birthday is on a very rudimentary level wet out west and drier in the east, but we’ll have a closer look below at what’s going on.

Upper North Island

A frontal system lies about Auckland southwards and slowly moves south during the day. Winds will be from the northeast for most regions. Northland can expect periods of cloud and sunny areas. Auckland sees morning rain or showers then drying up by mid morning, still plenty of cloud about. The Waikato, Bay Of Plenty and Central North Island will likely see rain or showers during the day. There is the chance of an isolated heavy fall or two within this frontal zone so something to take note of. It will become patchy north of about Tauranga this morning.

Lower North Island

Areas of cloud and a few sunny areas with northeasterly winds, a few showers spread into Taranaki and Manawatu by midday then Kapiti, Wellington and the Wairarapa during in the afternoon. Other areas out east stay mainly dry but expect high cloud.

Upper South Island

Mostly cloudy for the whole of the West Coast and Nelson, expect showers or spells of rain at times. There may be dry periods about too. In the east it’s mostly sunny with some high cloud, northeasterly winds for most regions. A few spots of rain may spread into Canterbury late afternoon or evening.

Lower South Island

Generally a similar outlook to the upper South Island. Cloudy in the west with rain or showers, drier out east with high cloud. Late afternoon or evening a few spots / spells of rain may move into Otago. Northeasterly winds.

Tuesday is looking wetter, especially in the west as a series of fronts move in connected to a deep low in the Tasman Sea. Heavy falls and even thunderstorms may develop on these frontal zones afternoon and evening from Northland through to about Greymouth on the West Coast of the South Island.

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson – WeatherWatch.co.nz