Some might argue spring started over a month ago, despite our cold blast in the second week of August, but yesterday New Zealand, Australia and South Africa officially marked the start of Spring.

While the debate will no doubt go on about whether today is truly the start of spring (many nations go by the astronomical start and end to seasons, which coincides with the equinox and longest and shortest days of the year – so June 22/23, Sept 22/23 etc) there is little doubt that spring conditions have already begun.

So how will September pan out?  Well, our models are telling us it will start off settled – but will go down hill in about 8 or 9 days time.

Long range models show the large high coming in this weekend staying with us until the end of next week – hopefully giving rugby fans warm northerlies at Eden Park for the kick off of the Rugby World Cup next Friday.

However as that high departs over the Pacific Ocean it’s replacement high may still be out over Perth – some 5000kms away from New Zealand. 

WeatherWatch.co.nz says in between these two highs we have the perfect recipe for a big Tasman Sea low and Southern Ocean cold fronts.

If this eventuates, as a couple of the models suggest, it could bring gales and heavy rain to parts of New Zealand next weekend and into the week starting September 12. 

It may also push temperatures in the east into the low 20s – but the downside could be a cold southerly before the next high rolls in later that week or the following weekend.

Either way, conditions do look unsettled from about September 10 onwards. 

We’ll keep you posted as we head towards the Spring Equinox on Sept 22nd, the date that marks the sun spending more time over the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere – and it also marks the start of our typically windiest weather.

– Homepage image / File, John Krippner

– WeatherWatch.co.nz