One thing about the second half of winter – it was quite predictable.  As temperatures jumped ahead of where they should be the weather was fairly similar from week to week, especially once the pattern of weekend northern lows started.

We also predicted that with a warmer than average August that didn’t mean September would be warmer than average.  Certainly the spring storm last week brought high temperatures to some eastern parts of the South Island but then the southerly tail arrived at the weekend and we even had a few snow flurries in the deep south.

September is incredibly average this year. We’ve had the sun, the cold. the wind, the calm. 

But the pattern we’re in now is certainly a faster and more changeable one.  Back in winter you could see low pressure systems coming 10 to 14 days away.  Now they are forming every couple of days and zipping past New Zealand.  This week we already have a new low in the Tasman Sea which will cross northern NZ like so many other lows have done in the past two months.

By the end of the week another Tasman Sea low has formed, this one hitting western areas mostly, especially the South Island.

Our pattern for the rest of September will be one of change – and for the this week, at least, the most settled weather will be in places that typically had some of the roughest weather last week – especially Christchurch / Canterbury, which will be one of the best places to be in this week weatherwise.  

– By head weather analyst Philip Duncan

– WeatherWatch.co.nz