If you’re tired of the rain this update may not excite you – with the risk of more heavy rain this coming Thursday, making it the third Thursday in a row to see likely severe weather conditions in parts of New Zealand.

While last week’s severe weather was generated by a storm, this week there is no storm (based on current models) only an area of low pressure and squash zones that will work to produce some slow moving heavy rain and a burst of wind. It should ease slowly over Friday.

The low is likely to bring in a burst of wind and rain which could be heavy enough to prompt severe weather warnings.

Even New Zealand Government Agency MetService, which usually sticks to 3 days severe weather outlooks, is today already discussing about the chance for rain warnings this Thursday in the west of both islands.

There is some good news though. Not only are the next few days mostly dry and mild in the Otago and Canterbury areas recently flooded, but there’s a chance a large high may be coming in this weekend behind this weather – perhaps allowing July to have a calm ending.

While heavy rain looks mostly western focused this Thursday there is a fairly high chance rain will again set back into parts of Otago and Canterbury later on Thursday and into Thursday night, with a chance of heavy snow on the Alpine Passes, easing Friday morning.  

In fact the snow level may even drop to 200m in Canterbury on Friday. WeatherWatch.co.nz has already updated Christchurch City mayor Lianne Dalziel this morning about Thursday and Friday’s possibilities.

We’ll keep you posted on the chance of more severe weather this week and the possibility of a calming high pressure system afterwards.

– Rain and wind returns to NZ this Thursday (Noon map) although not as a “storm” and hopefully more isolated. It’s ‘one to watch’ though. Map by Weathermap.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz