As we first predicted on Monday heavy rain is again coming towards New Zealand, wrapped around another large Tasman Sea low – scheduled to arrive this weekend.  WeatherWatch.co.nz has been looking closely at the data and our feeling is that while it may be significant enough to prompt rain warnings it’s unlikely to linger. 

“The low is likely to be as big as all the others but rather than meander slowly across the nation for several days this one will push across the country quickly – caught up in a new westerly flow” predicts head weather analyst Philip Duncan.  “This could spare Canterbury from more torrential rain and for other regions the fast movement of the low will lessen the chances of slips and flooding”.

And it’s this new westerly flow that WeatherWatch.co.nz first predicted last month.  

“This westerly flow – which doesn’t always mean westerly winds but instead the general flow of weather will come from the west – looks as though it’s the first serious signs of spring, perhaps the change we’ve needed to break this super wet pattern we’ve been in for a month now”.

The westerly flow tends to be faster moving meaning rains don’t linger but more days in the west, north and south may have clouds,  showers and wind.  Meanwhile the east – which in recent weeks has been saturated – should see sunnier, milder weather during the days and cooler, clearer, nights.

Frosts may also creep back into more areas – although severe frosts aren’t likely unless a cold southerly hits us first.

“Most people I’ve spoken to are over the rain and personally having the tune “here comes the rain again” by the Eurythmics stuck in my head each day has been bad enough” jokes Philip Duncan. “Hopefully the new tune soon will be “It’s a beautiful day” by U2″.

While heavy rain has caused some flooding and slips, most areas have tolerated the downpours fairly well after a dry Autumn and start to Winter.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says generally speaking the weather will remain unsettled for the rest of the month but the weather news authority expects less of the big rain makers that have drenched much of the nation over the past month and windier weather to increase.

– Homepage image – You can’t beat Wellington on a good day / Peter Buck

– WeatherWatch.co.nz