The public do not know that La Niña is the normal situation. Easterlies spread cooler winds west along the equator, warm up and spread north beside Japan and come down from Alaska to California as cooler NWs. On the US east coast warm currents cause surface winds to spread north from the Caribbean then east across the Atlantic and then NE as the Gulf Stream.

La Ni√±a is not really a ‘condition’, anymore than the rotation of the earth is a condition. All good things come to point of change eventually and the normal flow is unsustainable because of the build-up of sealevels, just like the pushing of water one way in a bath. About every 3 years when the sea-level difference reaches 62cms, the water flows the other way as something called the El Nino. It only does so after the previous pattern reaches a peak. That peak is really the ‘La Ni√±a episode’. Then El Nino, being a restoration back to balance, is much shorter, usually about 1.5 years. Imagine the time taken for a hand pushing the bathwater, vs allowing the water to fall back. At the moment we have El Nino finishing, as normal rain patterns return. La Ni√±a may become evident after next January, but no one has a mandate to name it so before.

To say ‘La Ni√±a is forming’ is as misleading as saying normality is forming, because normality is not something that forms – just the opposite – patterns depart from the normal. Currently meteorologists are claiming that everything is now anomalous, and there is no norm, only a succession of imaginary mysterious departures, which is why they talk of climate change. In logic, you cannot have both the notion of climate change and the notion of average, because a changing baseline is no longer a baseline.

The cyclone/hurricane season usually gets going just after El Nino ceases and well before any peaking of La Niña. That is why the hurricane season is only in early stages later this year but, as I have said before on this forum, will be much more fully applying in 2011/2012. I believe the moon is as usual the culprit, the combination of perigee and lunar equinox, because cyclones all form within 6deg of the equator and with the same lunar conditions present. There will be a tropical low in December, 4 in January, 3 in February, 7 events in March and 3 in April. Some of these will be cyclonic. The danger will be mostly over by May of 2012.

I am aware that my methods are different to those Phil uses, so I will always come up with different results. Because I use the moon my opinions are based on a cyclicity allied to tides. My longrange observations are not intended as any criticism of Phil or Ww, but as augmention of their work in extended range (which I think is superior to most). However I am worried about impending drought that I have calculated for next year and seek the ear of any forum that will allow my viewpoint, in the hope it will help those most affected. So I thank Ww for this opportunity.

Overall, 2011 should be an average to drier year in all regions except Southland, with some seriously dry conditions developing in Northland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty. These districts, for the overall year, are expected to be drier by around 20-40%, with Northland and Bay of Plenty the most affected. The remainder of the NI will also experience lower rainfall than average overall, but to a lesser degree. Careful water management now may be something for agriculturalists to consider.