It’s November 1st which means just one month of spring remains, so what are we likely to expect weather-wise over the coming weeks?

October was fairly settled and warm across New Zealand thanks to a number of large anticyclones. 

The strong westerlies of September have eased now and there are signs La Nina is really starting to take shape with easterlies already affecting the country on a frequent basis.

The first 10 day snap of November shows our weather continuing to be dominated by large highs.

However there is also development north of us with the tropics coming to life between New Caledonia and the Cook Islands.

WeatherWatch.co.nz predicts the developing dry spell of weather will mostly continue for another week despite some rain or shower activity later this week. 

As for the rest of November it should become increasingly likely that a sub-tropical low will form north of the country and move our way – however the angle these lows come down on makes a direct hit very difficult – with northern New Zealand so narrow.

In previous La Nina years we’ve seen lows and ex-tropical cyclones brushing very near us but not delivering any rain.

For rain to really set in a low is needed to drop into the Tasman Sea from the sub-tropics, then drift over the North Island or Central New Zealand.  At this stage the 10 day forecast doesn’t predict this… which means the status quo should remain.