The late George Harrison’s “Here Comes the Sun” would be a very appropriate song for today for most of New Zealand.

For this weekend, we would have to do a cover it and change the title.

Once again, a subtropical low has its eyes on New Zealand.  In other words, get ready for more rain this weekend, especially for the North Island.

Here’s how it breaks down;

In the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, the first bands of rain will start arriving in Northland.  As the morning progresses past sunrise, showers will try to make it into Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula.

As we get into the afternoon on Saturday, the rain is expected to move into Bay of Plenty and the eastern Waikato.

By the time we get to late Saturday night, most of the North Island should be getting wet.  The only exceptions would be Taranaki and the Wellington area.

That should change on Sunday as the low moves further south.  Showers should push into the Wellington area as well as Nelson and Marlborough by late Sunday morning.  Sunday will also continue to be wet for most of the North Island.

By Monday, rain will be spread across much of New Zealand, despite seeing a bit of an easing off.  Rain could last into Tuesday as well.

Now, there’s a little caveat that goes with all of this.  Sub-tropical lows can be tough to forecast.  A small variation of timing and/or track of this system and everything I just wrote goes right out the window.

I think at this point it’s unlikely that we will completely miss this storm.  I do think that much of the North Island is in for an unsettled Saturday and pretty wet Sunday.

I also think that South Island will see some rain from this system, although Southland and Otago may have to wait until Monday.

But the details of the timing and nailing down who gets wet when are still “up in the air” (an old weatherman’s pun).

Stay tuned…

From WeatherWatch Analyst Howard Joseph

Picture by Howard Joseph