UPDATED 4:55pm — A slow moving front continues to inch across the North Island this afternoon with some heavy showers forming across the island, but as WeatherWatch.co.nz alluded to yesterday the chance for thunderstorms is a bit hit and miss, and late this morning the weather news authority reduced their predicted risks for thunder in western coastal areas, including Auckland, from moderate to low for this afternoon.

However earlier this morning MetService went the other way – shifting the risk to high for much of the North Island.  As of 4:45pm they remained with the high risk for thunderstorms across much of the North Island.

Only a few thunderstorms have been detected today, most offshore around Northland and in recent minutes around the Gisborne region.

But WeatherWatch.co.nz doesn’t entirely disagree with MetService.  The heating today will certainly increase the risk of thunderstorms inland – along with heavy downpours late this afternoon and early evening.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the risk is generally low for most main centres.

The issue for a large area like Auckland was that the incoming rain band, and the angle of it, made it narrower than Auckland city itself.  That meant any weakening would dramatically reduce rain – and that’s exactly what happened this afternoon and was the reason we had only moderate confidence yesterday.. 

In the past 60 minutes the public Lightning Tracker at WeatherWatch.co.nz has detected just 80 lightning strikes around the entire country mostly around offshore Northland.

Putting thunder aside and the bands of rain are just as heavy as we predicted yesterday – with the risk for surface and localised flash flooding possible across most North Island regions today, especially inland and slightly northwest areas. 

Some areas may not see rain for a few hours later than earlier predicted, due to the incredibly slow movement of the front.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz