February is almost here and many are asking what the weather will do. WeatherWatch.co.nz has been looking at the various computer models and our forecast is for this current pattern to continue – but with a few slight changes.

What stays the same?

• The high pressure systems (anticyclones) coming in from Australia continue.
• The drier than average weather pattern continues for most
• The warmer than average weather continues – but still with the odd cooler day

What is changing?

• The anticyclones drop a little further south, giving more protection to the South Island and hopefully warmer, drier, more summer-like weather for those who have missed out.
• An uptick in easterly quarter winds for the upper North Island (and fewer sou’west days hopefully).
• The tropics wakes up north of NZ in February.

The two main highlights in the above ‘What is changing’ section are that the anticyclones are slipping a little further south and the tropics are waking up north of NZ. So far the tropics have been very active around northern Australia and off to our north east out around Tonga etc, but very sleepy directly north of New Zealand. However by mid Feb there will be lows directly north of us. At this stage none are forecast to directly hit NZ but these lows may start to impact the NZ area more-so in Feb and is worth monitoring as they drift and form closer to land.

The other highlight is the more southern track of the anticyclones/highs. It’s only a slight change, but it gives the lower South Island perhaps more sunny/dry days than they have had lately – while at the same time it allows the rainmakers in the tropics to get a little closer to northern New Zealand. 

MORE DRY WEATHER, ESPECIALLY FOR THESE REGIONS:
Many areas, especially the North Island, look dry coming up. In fact some areas like Auckland may only have 5mm over the next couple of weeks. Same goes for Waikato, Northland, Nelson, Marlborough and North Canterbury. 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATION MAP (ie, how much rain is expected across NZ over the next 2 weeks).

– GFS / US Government

– WeatherWatch.co.nz