Could our current low trigger more rain next week? All signs point to yes
1/08/2012 7:00pm
> From the WeatherWatch archives
The low that WeatherWatch.co.nz dubbed as “the eight day low” may, in fact, affect our weather for much of next week too – but in a different form. As we predicted last Sunday the low is expected to remain in the Tasman Sea for around eight days. The low started to weaken on Tuesday and will continue to do so right up until this Sunday and Monday.
However head weather analyst Philip Duncan says the low may not completely go away next week. “There’s no doubt that this low is going to slowly weaken and fall apart over the next five days, however a southerly change next week may well give it more energy and a secondary low may in fact form over or near the North Island around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week bringing even more rain”.
Mr Duncan says the latest forecast backs up a prediction made by WeatherWatch.co.nz last month that the first half of August would be generally wetter and milder for many regions. While daytime highs haven’t been excessive lately, most overnight lows have been above average with frost free conditions for most areas this week – despite being the coldest point of the year.
Decent snow falls have also been noticeably absent from the central North Island ski fields. WeatherWatch.co.nz says the long range forecast isn’t hugely positive either with a lack of true southerlies.
Next week high pressure was likely in the north Tasman Sea – effectively cutting off the sub-tropical element that has contributed to recent flooding across the country. However the high will be centred over Australia’s interior – a long way from being able to protect New Zealand from more rain.
On top of this North Island low another weaker low is also being predicted by some models for the lower South Island around Friday of next week.
Long range computer guidance currently suggests a spring-like westerly may then form across New Zealand in 10 days time. If this data is accurate that would see more rain for western New Zealand and windier, drier and warmer weather for eastern areas.
– Homepage image / www.MandenoMoments.com
– WeatherWatch.co.nz
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Before you add a new comment, take note this story was published on 1 Aug 2012.
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Duncan on 2/08/2012 4:04am
Yes, here in Upper Hutt there is fully bloomed Daffodils, and also several trees budding too. I wonder if the average temps across NZ were above normal for july??
Any Help there Phil??
Cheers
Duncan
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Andrew on 1/08/2012 8:17pm
It really is quite fascinating to be able to watch a depression form, weaken and reform over a period of 8 or 9 days and it doesn’t happen very often. Such a stretch of warm temperatures at this time of year is quite rare. Our plum trees are starting to bud up already. We have a ESE arch here in Nelson. A few scattered showers spreading off the hills to the east and occasional light rain from a high cloud base from Appleby west.
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WW Forecast Team on 1/08/2012 8:37pm
It really is isn’t it! This low has been the longest lasting low I can recall (for lack of movement). It’s a bit like a stuck pin ball, bouncing around from South Island’s West Coast to North Island’s west coast but no where else to move! Incredibly mild, especially at night, – and glad I said last Saturday that all signs point towards us getting past the coldest point of winter! (but that doesnt rule out more frosts and snow storms for NZ )
Cheers
Phil
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