ClimateWatch: NOVEMBER, DEC/JAN. Just what is going on with El Niño?! (+VIDEO & 13 Maps)

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures near Australia and north of NZ are complicating the El Niño outlook for our part of the world.

El Niño is measured at the equator and means warmer than usual sea surface conditions exist there, over towards the Americas. But marine heatwaves in the tropics directly north of NZ in October helped produce the earliest ever Southern Hemisphere Category 5 Tropical Cyclone on record… and warmer than average conditions continue along eastern Australia which may be a positive for them bringing more rain. Yet El Niño is very much in place across the Pacific – and it’s strengthening.

So a “broken” El Niño pattern may be quite welcome in NZ by most farmers and growers who may want some drier weather to kick in – but not a major dry to kick in. The warmer than average air and sea surface conditions for this El Niño make it unlike one we have ever experienced before in our records.

It’s worth noting our last ClimateWatch update on October 1 said that Spring + El Niño = A hat on a hat. In other words, it can make spring more spring-like. We’ve seen wind and heat temperature records broken this spring in both eastern NZ and eastern Australia – well in line with El Niño. But it’s been wetter than some people thought spring might be. As we keep saying, El Niño is not made in a lab with scientists in white coats – it’s unique and a bit messy and while a big general driver of our weather systems here in NZ our location on earth means “chaos” is our friend and can break the dry up. At least for now.

The long range data still suggests hotter and drier weather is likely, especially for inland and eastern places this summer, whilst southern and western NZ have a mixture of warmer and more average to cooler days (as El Nino usually brings in more sou’westers too, which are cloudier and cooler for the west and south of NZ).

“Variety” in November means there is a mixture of low and high pressure for both New Zealand and Australia – but perhaps leaning slightly drier in the month or two ahead for the North Island of New Zealand whilst the South Island has a bit more Southern Ocean influence. But the tropics north of us are active around the Solomon Islands and give us a “wild card” for possible rain this summer, as we saw with the remnants of Lola at the end of October. Not the norm – but possible.

Either way, below is our best thinking for the next three months ahead based on the data we have today.

*ClimateWatch is NOT a weather forecast or climate change forecast – it’s a seasonal outlook tracking weather systems but it’s more of a general big picture on how the climate is being driven and what that means for NZ generally. It’s designed to help growers, farmers, students, small business owners and even Government Agencies better plan ahead. It’s an entirely free service and is part of our public commitment to back the many New Zealanders who back our small business.

Graphic Credit: BoM (Bureau of Meteorology)

AIR PRESSURE… where the highs and lows will generally be this month…

**WEEK 1 of November** kicks off with a low in the Tasman Sea. It’s not uncommon to have a break between the fairly steady stream of high pressure, especially in spring. As we head into summer there may be fewer lows in the Tasman Sea like this one.

**WEEK 2 of November** sees low pressure exiting NZ and high pressure returning. This may bring in some rain or showers to the east as this transitions in.

**WEEK 3 of November** looks fairly traditional for mid November with windy westerlies over the country and high pressure to the north – and more high pressure coming from Australia. There’s also large low pressure out east towards the Cook Islands – lows are more likely to form there and north of Vanuatu in the months ahead.

Variety! There is plenty of variety (a good thing) soil moisture-wise around NZ.
**POLITICS:**
Unfortunately NZ Government Agency *NIWA* delays tax funded data for their own commercial interests. This means the tax funded NIWA soil moisture map doesn’t include rain that fell over the previous day (the last day of October in this case, which was heavy around East Cape and Coromandel Peninsula). Due to NIWAs increasingly commercial behaviour (as a Crown Research Institute, 100% owned by the NZ public) we are now working with private satellite organisations to replace and UPGRADE the soil moisture maps here in NZ. The Government has just launched a **second** investigation into the *NIWA/MetService* double up, despite ignoring the last independent investigation by *PricewaterhouseCoopers* several years ago which said NZ/NIWA has the most restrictive and expensive weather data access in the world. In other words: data you must tax fund NIWA then blocks you from freely using, unlike all other modern nations on earth. NIWA’s CEO has snubbed The NZ Listener and the Editor of the NZ Herald in answering what is going on. **The *Herald* was refused basic answers by NIWA** – promoting the *Herald* Editor at Large to recently lay a formal complaint with the *Ombudsman*. We keenly wait for the result of that complaint and thank the *NZ Herald* and *The Listener* for their efforts in trying to get NIWA management to, at the very least, simply be transparent over the most basic questions of their newfound commercial weather intentions. Niwa has also mislead a Select Committee about their commercial intentions. Extraordinary disappointing behaviour from NIWA & the NZ Government. This is why we use so many maps from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) – as they are a true public science resource for our part of the world.

UPCOMING RAIN…

Thunderstorms and afternoon downpours will bring some heavy rain to the eastern North Island, but not everyone will get the wet weather in the east. The West Coast has more traditional western rain, which is why the eastern South Island is much drier.

An unusual El Nino to see so much rain along eastern Australia, mainly between Brisbane and Sydney over the next couple weeks. This is due to southerlies, low pressure off shore and a marine heatwave all combining along with the placement of high pressure further south nearer to Adelaide. NZ has more sou’westers coming up which will bring rain to the west and drier conditions, eventually, increasing more in the east.

Apologies for the awful red background, we had a glitch in the graphics today! But the data on the map is still accurate – and shows the North Island and upper South Island leaning orange/yellow – which means rainfall looks to be slightly below average in the 3 months ahead. The green on the West Coast, Southland and Otago shows rainfall being normal to even slightly above normal – due to more west to south-west airflows in the coming months.

No change from all year – temperatures continue to lean warmer than average across NZ and Australia – especially Australia.

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What did we say last month? Compare our October update with our November one here
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Before you add a new comment, take note this story was published on 1 Nov 2023.

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Lee on 1/11/2023 4:54am

Hi there, can I ask what you’re thinking for the 4th week of November please? Particularly around the 27th if you have any idea of that yet. Thank you. 🙂

WW Forecast Team on 1/11/2023 5:41am

Hi Lee – We don’t provide weather forecasts that far out sorry. Based on the last map we have in ClimateWatch today for Week 3 it shows high pressure in the Australia region with NZ somewhat in that high pressure belt. Maps beyond this aren’t overly helpful for planning a specific date sorry.
– WW

Glen on 1/11/2023 3:28am

You’d bloody hope it leans drier for Auckland after the appalling “Summer” we had!

North Island

South Island

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