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La Nina is gone and now we’re in a NEUTRAL period. That basically means Autumn is Autumn, without any major climate driver changing things.
Over the coming month New Zealand and Australia are both likely to receive a mixture of big highs and low pressure zones, providing that classic mid-Autumn-set-up where we have dry/warm/settled weather for a time, then a burst of wind/cold/rain and snow on the ranges. Put simply, it’s summer slowly fading and hints of winter now arriving.
Rainfall looks to be normal or even below normal generally speaking. This may be due to some slow and large highs tracking over the country. But normal rainfall means most places will get wet weather at some point and we do see a number of lows from the south, west, north and east (yes, all around us) which may bring wet weather at some point. As always, there is the chance of localised flooding – but the general forecast suggests rain-bands will be broken up (even within regions).
With La Nina gonethe tropics do look quieter – but the sub-tropics (basically the zone north of NZ but south of New Caledonia and Fiji) – looks to be active with a few lows which could brush northern NZ and even eastern regions down to the South Island.
Temperatures look closer to normal than they’ve been in months – but the scales do still tip slightly warmer than average for all regions. (Doesn’t mean every day is warm, but it means frosts and cold days or cold nights may be reduced compared to previous decades).
In true Autumn style for NZ there is real variety and a messiness to the upcoming pattern, which sees plenty of dry and settled days mixed in with “oh yeah, summer is definitely now over” type weather!
CLIMATE…
HOW APRIL IS SHAPING UP AIR PRESSURE-WISE (ie, where are the highs and lows)…
RAINFALL…
TEMPERATURES…
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