On Friday our head weather analyst Philip Duncan suggested that spring may be arriving early this year – and with recent temperatures in the north and west it’s hard to argue with that.

But does an early spring mean a warm spring?  WeatherWatch.co.nz says quite simply – no.

With temperatures lifting to levels more common in September than the depths of winter it may well mean we see conditions plateauing over the next month or so.  In other words, where they stand now may well be where they remain for the next two months.

And just because winter is warm doesn’t mean spring is too.  Last year showed a range of months, some warmer than average, some colder.

But with a weather pattern change starting within the next 24 hours the highs of 17 and 18 degrees for western and northern centres (west being the West Coast and northern centres being Northland, Auckland and Bay of Plenty) may be coming to a temporary end.

This week will be dominated by winds from the westerly quarter for many regions. This will favour warmer weather at times in the east.

This coming weekend will likely see an aggressive system moving in from the west, bringing even stronger winds to New Zealand from the lower Tasman Sea.

If the long range weather maps are correct a low will then form in the Tasman Sea around Sunday which will pull down more warm air from the sub-tropics for the North Island early next week – meaning highs again in the late teens for some parts of New Zealand and overnight lows no where near frost levels for many in the North Island.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says while northern and western New Zealand have seen warmer than average temperatures, it’s been cold in the east with centres like Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington, Napier and Hastings all receiving fairly typical wintry weather conditions.

Homepage image : Daffodil / Zelda Wynn