We just can’t seem to catch a break this month.

It’s like a conveyor at your favourite grocery store.  The pattern we are in keeps tapping into tropical moisture and storms systems (lows) and bringing it all from the trolley (Coral Sea) to the cashier (New Zealand).

Unfortunately, there aren’t too many of those little things you put in between the orders giving us an extended round of summer weather either.

So, is this weekend a washout?  What about the rest of the month?

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This Weekend-

It looks like this low headed for New Zealand this weekend won’t bring as much widespread rain to the country as last weekend’s did.  Another positive point is it looks like Nelson will be spared from the worst.  However, it still needs to be watched.  WeatherWatch Head Analyst Philip Duncan compares forecasting tropical lows to balancing a tennis ball on your pointing finger with the finger being Northland.  He says “The ball (low) can drop down either side, and that’s why tropical lows are always one to watch.”

But, Duncan adds, “…the latest models seems to insist this will track down the eastern side of Northland and straight into Bay of Plenty and East Cape – possibly even a little further east than that (fingers crossed).”

The rain is expected to peak between Sunday and Tuesday.

The South Island may see some rain on Saturday.

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The rest of the month-

After this weekend’s low clears us on Tuesday, models are pointing to another low coming in late next week, probably Thursday the 12th.  That would then move into the North Island on Friday the 13th (how appropriate) and then move out on Sunday the 15th.

Just in time for the next low.

No, I’m not kidding.

The super long range models try to bring yet another low in around the Wednesday the 18th and keep us wet into the weekend of the 21st and 22nd.

Now, keep in mind.  That’s a long way off.  There is a lot that can change between now and then.  However, the last few weeks in January may be just as wet as the first few weeks of January if the pattern doesn’t change.  If the conveyor doesn’t get pointed to a different cashier.

As of now, we don’t see that happening anytime soon.

From Weather Watch Analyst Howard Joseph with Head Analyst Philip Duncan