NZ is fast drying out and the big dry is now becoming much more concerning for some with long range forecasts suggesting little to no rain may be coming for those who need it the most over the next 10 days.

Central New Zealand, which WeatherWatch.co.nz defines as the Upper South Island and Lower North Island remains trapped in a bubble of dry weather. Even a cold front tonight will be decimated as it climbs over the Southern Alps and into Nelson, perhaps only bringing a few brief light showers overnight.

Going long range and as you can see the tropics are full of energy but there is an incredibly fine line, a 50/50 line, between that heavy tropical rain and almost nothing at all. This means while very heavy rain may be just nearby, a narrow slither of high pressure will remain over NZ keeping many places very dry. 

Further north in very dry regions like Northland this tropical energy should bring some relief. Auckland looks more 50/50 and Waikato looks even more on the edge of getting much needed rain – or perhaps very little at all. All eyes this week will be on the high near Tasmania and how much it might stop (or allow) the tropical rainmaker to head south.

Here’s the Total 10 Day Expected Rainfall Accumulation – we’ve highlighted in white the driest places and in yellow where the bulk of the rain will be. (Feb 11 to Feb 21)

(Data courtesy of the US Government)

SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT MAP

– Public soil map courtesy of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research – a NZ agency 100% owned by the NZ Government/Taxpayer.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz