Weather Forecast for Snells Beach-Algies Bay, Warkworth26m above sea level
Partly cloudy. Breezy to brisk Sou'West winds.
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Comments
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From our Education archives โ Tassie often gets first what NZ gets later. The Australian state shares not only similarโฆ
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peter on 4/01/2025 2:03pm
its one of the worst years there is 2024 most months out side of winter was under a 100 mils per month or struggled to get thereโฆ. there was no wetter months than normal most dry years you still get wet months but not this year and its still pileing in the rain to the south and east its shocking
Reply
Phil on 4/01/2025 1:26am
Why do I get the feeling summers are getting colder and colder down south. We had a ripper summer a few years ago and ever since itโs been 16 degrees and cloudy consistently. Iโm done of this Iโm heading north next summer
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Douwe Goedhart on 3/01/2025 8:22pm
I see that your forecast is just as stuffed up as ever. I just got in, soaking wet from the rain, putting what I could under cover. The other stuff will have to stay in the rain which is forecast by you to have gone.
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WW Forecast Team on 3/01/2025 8:52pm
Hi there, If rain matters to you this much then you need to read this: https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/education-the-most-accurate-ways-to-read-a-rain-forecast-get-fewer-false-alarms
Being frustrated about not having complete perfection in weather forecasts is like being annoyed you canโt yet fly to and live on Mars. Itโs made especially hard when the NZ Government blocks all forecasters from adding rain radar data into forecasts to fix the problem youโre most upset about. Read that article and have fewer nasty surprises in 2025.
Thank you for using our free service when you already pay for/tax fund both NIWA and MetService to provide you also with foreasts.
Kind regards
โ WW
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Brian on 4/01/2025 8:34pm
Fair comment, WW.
But to be fair to us as well, you use very sophisticated technology and we actually choose to trust you to guide us as to whatโs happening, as the weather, obviously, has an enormous impact on our ability to perform many activities.
If your forecasts are significantly different to reality, then we lose trust in you. Iโm sure that this is not the outcome that you prefer.
It is entirely reasonable to accept that forecasts are based on information available at hand, and you have repeatedly commented that things can (and do) change over time. We all know that the further out the forecast is, the less accurate it is.
Itโs not clear from the complainant how far ahead they saw your prediction of when the rain was to be gone. If they relied on a ten day forecast, and the rain left a few hours later, then thatโs an unfair complaint.
But if they looked at the forecast published that morning, and the rain was still pouring down a couple of hours later, then the complaint is valid.
No-one is perfect, we all mess things up. And we all should accept that.
It would also help to replace the sarcasm with a request for context in terms of timing.
Reply
WW Forecast Team on 4/01/2025 10:19pm
Hi there Brian, thank you for your message. We get abuse daily but the friendly push backs and questions we always respectfully respond to.
Again, we canโt forecast individual showers โ but most importantly the NZ Government does NOT share public and tax funded real time rain radar data. This is critical for you to understand how much this โdumbs downโ all local weather forecasts across all providers in this specific country. This is unlike any other modern democracy on the planet and it strips the ability of ALL weather forecasters in NZ to forecast individual downpours on the day itself. Weโve been fighting the Government for 15+ years and we are still prohibited from using this data without paying a fee so high it makes it impossible to be done. MetService and NIWA commercialise public assets and block open data access (unlike Australia, USA, Canada, UK, Japan etc) and this means in NZ no forecaster can forecast all of NZโs showers even though we easily have the capability to do so immediately. Worth noting our data successfully can forecast most individual downpours in Australia, USA etc where the Government provides open weather data.
Government (tax funded) radars and weather observations are the building blocks of accuracy in ALL forecasts on the day. We have the worldโs most accurate forecast data but the NZ Government clips our wings by limiting this essential data on purpose to keep MetService and NIWA commercially relevant. For the record, MetService donโt even ingest their radar data the way we can so that means all NZers miss out on this extra on-the-day rain accuracy.
Most people who complain about rain forecasts in NZ arenโt interested in knowing why we canโt get 100% accuracy โ or the politics around it. Itโs exhausting having insulting comments about this daily, especially when weโre more accurate than the Government forecasters we all tax fund.
Finally, the information in that link provided above is what many farmers and growers in NZ do daily and they โ like us โ are rarely surprised by a downpour, even if your chance for one may only be 10% on the day. There are reasons for this. But in NZ you will never just be able to look at your basic forecast and 100% track showers on the dayโฆ not until free open data exists. That means you need to expect the limitations, pay for personalised services, or complain to your local Member of Parliament.
Kind regards,
Philip Duncan.
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Chris on 1/01/2025 7:18pm
Will there be better weather in week 2 of January?
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Kat on 2/01/2025 12:11am
Not likely. Check out the recent video. Most of NZ is supposed to be cooler, just as windy and humid. Also, look at the wind maps and pit ypur city/town/area into the rural section of this website and Violaโฆ..your almost backyard weather.
Yay Summer!!!!
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Alan Campbell on 30/12/2024 11:47pm
Thanks Phil for your excellent explanations of forecasting weather predictions.
Very interesting indeed as I follow the weather with passion,Iโm definitely a junky on this.
Keep up the great work you do.
A very happy New Year to you and the team.
Alan.
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