While the jury is still out on a possible rain event next week the models are today still suggesting next week will be windier – especially for the top half of the North Island – then, the rest of the nation.

A shallow but large area of low pressure is predicted to form to the north and north west of New Zealand this weekend – while at the same time a large high is expected to move in south of this low.

Between the two pressure systems a strengthening easterly flow is forecast for the top half of the North Island, bringing windy weather to Auckland, Northland, the eastern Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula.

The easterlies are likely to develop gently on Saturday and Sunday then strengthen on Monday and Tuesday.  Damaging winds are not currently predicted.

On Wednesday a fairly breezy to brisk easterly flow should cover the North Island – but for the eastern South Island winds will be more from the north east – and will be fresh but not strong.

By Thursday the strongest winds should hug the North Island’s entire eastern coastline while winds temporarily ease elsewhere.

But by next Friday a strong westerly change is likely across the entire country – heading into the weekend – as a large low approaches.

And what about that forecast rain?  Well the models are still picking some bands of heavy sub-tropical rain – but they aren’t sure about exactly where that rain will fall.  Most data we’ve analised shows the risk if greater just to the north east of of the North Island – and although it looks as though it may mostly fall offshore there is a risk to those regions that hug the north eastern coastline of the North Island, from Northland to Gisborne.  One to watch.

Heavy rain is also likely along the West Coast on Sunday.

Confidence in the accuracy of the models should lift significantly by late Friday.

There is still uncertainty around the incoming rain and winds – so keep up to date with our daily news updates at WeatherWatch.co.nz

Image / Tuesday’s wind map shows brisk easterlies across the North Island while the South Island remains fairly calm / MetOcean

– WeatherWatch.co.nz