Sunday Newsfeed: Heavy rain Fiordland, NZ Weather + NEW Tropical Trouble brewing

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Sunday Newsfeed: Heavy rain Fiordland, NZ Weather + NEW Tropical Trouble brewing

12/11/2023 7:48am

> From the WeatherWatch archives

Here’s what is making the weather headlines this Sunday evening…..

🚨🌀A quick change in just over 8 hours with a Typhoon Formation Alert for #95W (Northern Hemisphere) issued tonight by the #JTWC.

✚

⚠️🌀#91P (the depression near the #SolomonIslands) is likely to become a named Tropical Cyclone in the next day or so by https://t.co/zFp93JinTL pic.twitter.com/zy73m4N6nY
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 12, 2023

🌀Two nearby tropical lows closer to becoming named storms, spinning opposite directions on either side of the equator as the forces of nature gradually pull them towards the poles.

It's also like the classic Simpson's episode where the toilet drains the other way in Australia🚽 pic.twitter.com/fr3ip7cNPe
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 12, 2023

With the 2nd tropical cyclone of the season looming near #Fiji, long range modelling shows it may fall apart near NZ. But the further east they are often the less impact they have on our weather.

Yesterday's modelling had it well offshore, today's updates show it closer to NZ. pic.twitter.com/Lt01G64Gf1
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 11, 2023

American modelling shows the remnants of this tropical low likely being well east of NZ – but close enough to merge with another low developing out of the Tasman Sea at some point near the upper North Island next weekend. At this stage it poses no serious threat to NZ – but it’s worth monitoring. It’s not coming in from the same angle the left overs of Lola did back in October…which was typically a worse direction for NZ as far as severe weather is concerned. For now, this future potential tropical cyclone doesn’t pose a serious threat to NZ – but it’s certainly worth monitoring due to the instability caused by a lack of high pressure zones for a time next weekend near NZ, which could allow it to merge into one area of rain and some wind.

European modelling shows the remnants of this tropical low likely being well east of NZ – but close enough to merge with another low developing out of the Tasman Sea.

The top 2 are northern hemisphere, so they can't.

However the remnants of the #Fiji low do have some chance of falling apart over NZ as it merges with another low (a bit like Lola's remnants did, but further east). At this stage, there is no serious threat to NZ. #Fiji exposed. https://t.co/GFfDgBK5u7
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 11, 2023

This isn't your normal El Nino.

3️⃣tropical lows all bubbling away in the western Pacific.

🚨🌀91P (as it's known globally) is the tropical low Fiji Met Service now tracking. This is an unusual season & this storm may strengthen beyond current modelling.

🇫🇯#Fiji
🇹🇴#Tonga pic.twitter.com/e7BO2RjJm7
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 11, 2023

⚠️🌀The risk continues to rise for the next possible South Pacific tropical cyclone, now 'moderate to high' according to Fiji Met Service (https://t.co/zFp93JinTL).

Modelling hasn't shown anything too alarming as of yet – but worth monitoring very closely for:
🇫🇯#Fiji
🇹🇴#Tonga pic.twitter.com/AvFqv8Kse6
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 11, 2023

⚠️☔️Heavy West Coast rain
🌡️Milder for many
😨Still a bit cool for Hawke's Bay today

🥵Yesterday Adelaide was over 40c! (today 23c). Despite parts of the South Island being several degs warmer than usual, NZ looks to only get up to the mid (maybe upper) 20s in the days ahead. pic.twitter.com/sfSBU7Lpuf
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 10, 2023

🎶Here I go again on my own,
Going down the only road I've ever known…🎵

🌀The 2nd potential early tropical cyclone of the season has a "low to moderate" chance of formation, according to the Fiji Met Service.☔️Even if it doesn't form, several wet days are on the way for #Fiji pic.twitter.com/qmVC9ex8Pw
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 10, 2023

VERY SETTLED TODAY

A large high pressure system sits over the country today bringing settled and mostly sunny weather, there are a few harmless clouds about but nothing to bother.

A cold start this morning for some inland areas especially the inner North Island with a light frost for the Central Plateau, perhaps even Upper Hutt.

Cloud cover / MSLP map – Saturday 11th November 2023 2:00pm – GFS Windy.com

HEAVY RAIN FOR FIORDLAND ON SUNDAY

A northwesterly airflow develops over the South Island on Sunday with a front moving in from the southwest, this brings heavy rain to Fiordland from morning.

Warm temperatures develop in the east getting into the mid twenties.

MSLP / Rain map – Sunday 12th November 2023 4:00pm – GFS Weatherzone.com.au

WEATHER ON SUNDAY – DRY FOR MOST

A front starts to approach from the southwest, northwesterlies build ahead of it and high pressure gets shunted north.

North Island

Mostly sunny with west to southwesterly winds, light winds for Bay Of Plenty and down along the east coast, perhaps tending onshore in the afternoon. Kapiti may have some cloud and a few light showers.

South Island

Cloudy for South Westland with showers, heavy rain for Fiordland from morning, further north along the West Coast expect dry weather and sunny spells. Mostly sunny and warm for Canterbury in the east up through to Nelson, there may be some high cloud. Southland and Otago has partly cloudy skies, coastal Southland has a few showers (mainly later in the day). Winds from the northwest, tending onshore in the afternoon south of Banks Peninsula about the coast.

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