Easterlies are about to dominate northern New Zealand and humidity levels may be about to lift further as the tropics wakes up, expands, and flirts with New Zealand in the coming weeks.

High pressure looks to track further south allowing low pressure well north of New Zealand to expand. Latest modelling shows a number of large low pressure systems forming directly north of us over the next week and while none look to directly hit New Zealand they may be close enough to help alter our weather pattern in the north.

“We may see more east to south east winds, we may get more showers in Northland and the upper North Island’s east and it may make for hotter weather in the west” says head forecaster Philip Duncan. 

On Waitangi Day next week it looks as though a cold front from the Southern Ocean, not the tropics, will be moving up the country bringing a period of rain and/or showers. This will be a relief to some farmers and gardeners, but the timing may not be great for holidaymakers. As this front goes northwards it may merge more wth sub-tropical air making for showers or rain around northern NZ. Being a week away it’s hard to be specific but some rain next Wednesday looks likely in New Zeaand.

But it’s after Waitangi Day and into February’s second week that we may see a tropical low much closer to the North Island. Many regions in the North Island are now drier than average soil-moisture-wise which makes it harder to grow pasture, some crops and summer vegetables not to mention those who live on rain water and need regular top ups to avoid running dry.

High pressure looks to bring more settled weather to the South Island over the start of February but between highs there is a good chance you’ll still get those briefly wet cold fronts from the south west. This looks likely this Friday and again next Wednesday with mostly settled, dry, weather in between thanks to high pressure.

In between highs — The current thinking for 1pm on WAITANGI DAY (please note, being over a week out things may still change further, please check out our local 10 day forecasts for more details)

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 9TH shows tropical energy to our north getting closer to NZ, increasing humidity and the chance of showers, maybe rain, in dry northern areas while high pressure dominates firmly over the South Island and lower North Island.

– Maps by Weathermap.co.nz

– WeatherWatch.co.nz