It’s an extremely concerning set-up, one that may see a few days of severe across New Zealand as Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle strengthens further today.

Global modelling suggests there is a high risk for New Zealand, especially the upper North Island which may well take a direct hit from the centre of the storm.

While confidence is high the cyclone will reach NZ, there still remains some uncertainty about the precise tracking of the centre.

We explain what is driving the set-up next week and how high pressure could make it worse or better.

For Australia, the mainland is mostly unaffected weather-wise – but Norfolk Island may well get a direct hit on Saturday night from the eye of the cyclone.