Temperatures over the coming days will be several degrees above average for late July as airflows from the interior and tropical parts of Australia move in. But it’s what happens after this that is more newsworthy, with the potential for a wintry outbreak in NZ next week.

It’s complicated though – and sub-tropical connections over the North Island and a large low that will also be in the mix means no forecaster can yet lock it in. Yes, some modelling has indicated snow to low levels – but other updates have backed off from this. At this early stage, with such a messy set up, it’s wise to be cautious – and we’re being fairly conservative still for our outlook next week.

Farmers – this is something to pay attention to with windchill and wet, cold, winds being a potential problem for any early newborn livestock.

We have your weekend forecast and the outlook to Tuesday next week.