A tropical cyclone is forming this week over the Coral Sea and by Sunday/Monday may bring severe weather to New Zealand.

We go through the various computer models and show the likely tracking, strength – and which parts of NZ may have severe weather risks.

The storm is not yet locked in to directly impact NZ – but as you’ll see from the modelling, there’s a fair amount of confidence we should be monitoring this now.

Meanwhile, the South Island has a colder change about to move in with daytime maximum temperatures dropping over 20 degrees on where they were a few days ago for parts of Southland! This cold change lasts about 48 hours and fades by the weekend.

Australia has cooler airflows around southern and south eastern regions. Also, Cyclone Freddy lies off from WA (poses no threat to land) and Queensland is expecting to be brushed by the new offshore Cyclone this week.

🌀Here are3⃣of the globe's must trusted weather models. They are aligning more & more, but this does not mean this is locked in. At least another 72 hours before tracking towards NZ can be more certain… but this current forecast is certainly ominous. #DevelopingTropicalCyclone pic.twitter.com/tsLtALMGXh

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) February 7, 2023