High pressure is dominating NZ and south-eastern Australia but the tropics and the Southern Ocean areas remain active with numerous low pressure zones, some simmering away gently, others growing into large storms.

La Niña is not officially here – and we discuss why Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology no longer provides fortnightly updates on La Niña, as news outlets continue to headline it almost every week.

Put short, the forecast across Australasia is that of a very active tropical season creating more lows, thunderstorms and heavy rain in the tropics, while the Southern Ocean also remains very busy with storms tracking past. A “protective” layer of high pressure separates these rain and wind makers from NZ for now – and most of that high pressure is tracking south of Australia, over the south-east of Australia, the Tasman Sea and over NZ, keeping these areas drier than normal.

However, with so much energy north and south of these dry areas there is a heightened chance of a tropical rain maker (or Tasman Sea low) bringing rain in mid to late this month. Eastern Australia has higher chances of rain than NZ does, but that may change mid-month (but not locked in). 

We have your monthly outlook, made with the help of BoM and Weatherzone maps out of Australia and NZ’s Moana Project and Niwa.

• WeatherWatch.co.nz