For those who are closely watching the models there’s a bit of uncertainty about the rain next week. Over recent days most long range data has suggested a high chance of rain around New Zealand from Boxing Day (Tuesday) and through Wednesday.

However today there has been a shift in this forecast, with quite a big cut back in the amount of rain, how widespread it is and the intensity.

When the models are like this (showing widespread rain one day and much drier the next) it’s best to look at a few days of updates and work out any patterns of consistency. In the case of next week all the updates have shown rain for the West Coast which then has a chance to develop into a newer system around central New Zealand. But in Friday’s updates the data shows the rain event next week being much smaller and less significant – for those who need rain this will be disappointing.

“We still need to see a few more days of updates, there is a now more uncertainty about the rain next week due to a large high in the Tasman Sea area trying to move in” says head forecaster Philip Duncan. “For those who need rain next week the chances are reduced a bit today, but we need further updates to lock it in”.

There may also be a chance of isolated heavy falls.

Mr Duncan says there will be a lot of holidaymakers not wanting rain next week, so this will be a positive forecast for a lot of New Zealand. “Next week remains a bit of a question mark on Tuesday and Wednesday about where the rain will be and how heavy it will be. With so many people putting up tents and awnings and heading outside it’s a forecast that, no matter what happens next week, will be seen as both good and bad news by a lot of New Zealanders!”.

– Forecast Rain Radar for 10am Boxing Day shows a narrow front and some showers moving across the country / Weathermap

– 7 day rain compared to normal shows pink/red areas as drier than usual, white = normal and blue = wetter than usual. Data with thanks to the US Government.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz