A sub-tropical low is on the cards for next week but forecasters are still scratching their heads as to its exact intensity and tracking reports WeatherWatch.co.nz.

Global models are still at odds over just where the low will form exactly but they appear to agree that Sunday will see a fairly quick deepening of a low north of New Zealand. 

WeatherWatch.co.nz says the development of this low will put a more traditional La Nina weather pattern back in play over the country.

Since a cold front came through almost two weeks ago New Zealand has had a slow rebound with temperatures and overnight conditions still remaining chilly in many areas, especially compared to February. 

Next week WeatherWatch.co.nz says the northerly flow will come from the tropics, or sub-tropics, so should be warmer and more humid. 

No exact path can yet be drawn on this next low and even the government forecaster, MetService, is unsure about how the low will exactly pan out.  Yesterday they included the upper North Island in their Severe Weather Outlooks saying that heavy rain is a possibility.

“On Sunday, a depression looks likely to develop in the north Tasman Sea, and spread east or northeast winds onto northern and central New Zealand on Monday.  There could be some heavy rain on Monday about Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne. However, there is a lot of uncertainty at this range and confidence is low” says the government forecaster.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says it is one to watch but that farmers will be happy to hear of more rain coming.  Many regions have had “healthy” rainfall this summer but it has come in short, sharp, blocks.  Water tables in many areas remain low according to WeatherWatch.co.nz readers who say the ground is still dry across a number of regions despite the wet periods over January and early February.

– WeatherWatch.co.nz

Homepage image — File, Whangarei Falls in flood / Paul Herbert