> From the WeatherWatch archives
The rain clouds are building and the winds are cranking up west of the country as a low continues to deepen and move towards us, according to WeatherWatch.co.nz.
Whenever a low is newly forming coupled with crossing over New Zealand it’s always difficult to accurately pinpoint in great detail who will get what and when, however it’s looking fairly clear that heavy rain will hit the west, strong winds will hit the east and a bitterly cold southerly will move up the south.
Earlier in the week the computer models were picking the low would deepen rapidly off the Hawkes Bay coastline but now it looks likely to do so off the Canterbury coast. This will see strong, cold, south to south east winds blasting into the South Island’s east coast while bringing warmer, drier, nor’westers to the North Island’s east coast.
The slight change will be a welcome forecast to farmers who are still cleaning up damaged fences and tracks caused by slips around Gisborne and Hawkes Bay at the start of July.
It will mean cold weather for the All Blacks test against the Wallabies in Christchurch on Saturday night. Temperature at kick off is likely to only be 4 or 5 degrees with cold southerlies. It’s possible there will be snow on Banks Peninsula, and indication of just how cold it will get for fans braving the weather. Wind chills are likely to be below zero, possibly -3 at times predicts WeatherWatch.co.nz.
Meanwhile the northern side of the low will mean the opposite weather conditions for much of the North Island. A warm nor’west flow will again push temperatures up to around 20 degrees for some in the east and late teens for a number of other northern and eastern centres.
Heavy rain is predicted for the West Coast and some western parts of the North Island.
Either way WeatherWatch.co.nz says the weekend is looking wet and windy for most, wintry in the South Island and spring-like in the North Island.
WeatherWatch.co.nz is also monitoring the computer models which for a number of days now have been predicting an aggressive storm hitting New Zealand between Thursday and Sunday next week.
Homepage image: Lightning over Whitford / John Sweden
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Before you add a new comment, take note this story was published on 5 Aug 2010.
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Ken Ring on 6/08/2010 6:07am
But wait, didn’t the metservice and NIWA say all the cold weather of winter was behind us? That came from the new taxpayer-funded $12.7m NIWA supercomputer that does 64000 calculations per second. After switching it on there have been no warnings of any extreme weather for the rest of the year, presumably meaning there would be none. So what has gone wrong?
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WW Forecast Team on 6/08/2010 6:12am
No organisation, that I’m aware of, has said all the cold weather of winter was behind us. WeatherWatch.co.nz said the worst of the overnight lows had passed but clearly said brief cold snaps, bringing snow, are possible right until the end of Spring, but that time is running out for sustained days of bitterly cold or Antarctic conditions across the country.
Philip Duncan
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Ken Ring on 6/08/2010 6:36am
Phil, on 23/07/10 you said “the worst of winter is over… but it’s quite possible that it is. At least as far as the coldest weather goes”. That you added that there would still be odd snow storms did not hide the emphasis and the main point, that the worst of winter was supposedly over by July. NIWA said the same thing and you may have been repeating their outlook. I have always said milder weather in August caused by westerlies would be only a respite from the brunt of winter cold that is still to come, particularly in the second week of September. You are saying the brunt is over and only odd cold spells remain. There is a difference. Are you still saying most cold weather is over and only odd cold bits remain to arrive, or that what occurred in July was nowhere near the main thrust of winter (as I – and my almanac – have predicted)?
cheers
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WW Forecast Team on 6/08/2010 9:08am
My quote was clearly in a general sense – which means as the sun continues to spend more time in the sky our average temperatures will start to rise. It’s also incredibly unlikely that we’ll see the same run of severe frosts anywhere in the country (a month long in some areas).
So yes, while we’ll see some brief cold spells, like this weekend in the South Island, it is quite likely that overall the coldest weather has passed.
This weekend, for example, is still looking very mild for much of the North Island – and even when the colder air arrives it’s not looking brutal.
By the way, ALL our predictions are independent of NIWA and MetService. Our forecasts are based on the previous month of weather patterns, the computer models for the next two weeks and then our estimates for the next month or so after that. If they are based on any of NIWA or NOAA’s predictions we say that.
Cheers for your feedback
Phil
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Ken Ring on 6/08/2010 12:42pm
Thanks for that clarification. One month may not indicate much about the next, as NIWA found out April 2009, when they predicted a warm following three months but were redfaced when May and June reached lowest temperatures ever in some parts. Even taking note of seasons will give you a clue – all the seasons this year are extending later – later summer, later autumn and this winter will peak later, spring will extend into next summer and the summer will arrive late. This is because of this year’s lunar perigee timings.
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WW Forecast Team on 6/08/2010 1:56pm
Didn’t you predict the Shotover river would freeze last year?
Phil
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Ken Ring on 7/08/2010 1:48am
Yes I did and it did.
The Forecast – http://www.odt.co.nz/your-town/queenstown/41572/shotover-river-may-freeze-says-forecaster
The result – http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/queenstown/2611359/Shotover-like-a-margarita
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Andrew on 6/08/2010 1:48am
Last week i said it wont really effect Auckland accept some rain…. I was right…. lol
Well this has more of a Auckland feel to that low….. I believe the low will bring the heavier rain to our largest City…… Yah its nice to be included once in awhile….lol Metservice dont forget us in your warnings……
Andrew
Thats just my little spin on this low…..
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