The incoming tropical trouble set for next week is set to stir up our seas and surf over the north of the country as the winds take hold and swells increase.

Brett Beamsley, Oceanographer at MetOcean Solutions (Weathermap.co.nz) believes that the forecast models are still offering moderate chances of significant swells and rips.

Four metre swells are possible from late Tuesday and lasting throughout Wednesday and Thursday over north east facing beaches across the upper north Mr Beamsley says.
Some swells could be higher offshore and there’s also a possibility of rips on the Coromandel Peninsula with Tairua and Whiritoa beaches at risk.

The prolonged period of unsettled conditions could not only see the seas and surf around Coromandel Peninsula quite heavily impacted but also the Western Bay of Plenty is likely to be vulnerable to high seas with a potential swell of six metres.

Brent Beamsley looks at the weather situation as it currently stands. “The high pressure system is expected to basically stall to the east and south of the country, with the pressure gradient maintaining a easterly airflow over the upper North Island. It looks like regardless of the path, or how different low pressure areas develop from Monday there this easterly airflow expected over the upper North Island which will have considerable fetch and duration over which to develop an energetic sea state.

WeatherWatch.co.nz is monitoring the situation closely and will have updates over the next few days.