Sunny, warm, weather is in store for much of New Zealand today thanks to a large anticyclone covering almost all of the country.

Mainly light winds and clear skies are predicted for most places with the only exception being Southland where cloud and west to north west winds will blow – but nothing significant is expected.

But it’s not going to last – a low in the northern Tasman Sea looks set to bring rain and wind to northern and western New Zealand.

We’ve been talking about this low all week and each day the computer models bump it out another 24 hours.  So what exactly is happening up there?

Well the models keep changing due to the high over New Zealand – this high is lasting longer and growing stronger than first forecast.  But the high won’t last forever…it will start to back off on Sunday and the Far North will notice an increasing easterly.  That easterly will become strong in exposed coastal places on Monday or Tuesday as the low deepens and the ‘squeeze zone’ develops over northern New Zealand.

It’s unlikely that this low will bring any severe weather to the country as the high looks too dominant but a change to wetter, windier, weather is on the cards for places like Whangarei and Auckland and probably Hamilton, Tauranga and New Plymouth.

However the high may just be strong enough to block much of this low – meaning the centre will drift down the west coast of the country, weakening quickly as it does so, but still bringing some rain and wind to places in the north and west of the nation. 

This low will bring a change in our weather pattern with what looks like a return to sub-tropical lows over the next couple of weeks.  Winter over?  Sure looks that way for the north…and actually for the South Island too.  While the South Island looks much drier for the next 7 days the stream of winds from the northerly quarter means the days should be warmer.

Spring in Te Awamutu, Waikato.  Photo / John Krippner